Prediction market arbitrage today
The latest scan read 407,363 markets on 5 venues and matched 19,251 pairs of the same contract. 678 of those pairs cost less than $1 after taker fees; 492 are 90%+ confidence matches. The median spread returns 0.61%; the best 90%+ match returns 92.14%. The busiest route is Polymarket ↔ Predict.fun, with 307 spreads. 46 spreads resolve within the next 7 days.
Top spreads
High-confidence pairs with real depth, varied by event. Profit is for a $1,000 budget, capped by the depth on both books.
| Event | Buy YES | Buy NO | ROI | Ends | Profit on $1,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET — UpUp or Down | PF 42.0¢ | PM 48.0¢ | 9.08% | 1h | $5.82 |
| "Wild Horse Nine" Rotten Tomatoes Score? — 92+Movies | KS 52.0¢ | PM 29.0¢ | 20.85% | 15d | $8.80 |
| "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Rotten Tomatoes Score? — 60+Movies | KS 84.0¢ | PM 12.0¢ | 3.16% | 29d | $26.27 |
| Trump out as President before 2027?Politics | PF 3.2¢ | OP 94.0¢ | 2.58% | 2mo | $25.75 |
| The Game Awards: Best Independent Game — MewgenicsGames | KS 9.0¢ | PM 88.0¢ | 2.49% | 2mo | $5.69 |
| Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?quantum | PM 2.4¢ | OP 95.5¢ | 1.96% | 2mo | $18.60 |
| Avengers: Doomsday: Rotten Tomatoes score — Above 70Entertainment | KS 80.0¢ | PF 17.0¢ | 1.56% | 57d | $15.64 |
| NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year — Micah NoriNBA | KS 7.0¢ | PM 87.2¢ | 5.65% | 9mo | $6.41 |
| NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year — Tyronn LueNBA | KS 2.0¢ | PM 94.4¢ | 3.59% | 9mo | $12.31 |
| Serie A: 2027 Champion — Inter MilanSoccer | PF 60.1¢ | PM 37.0¢ | 1.88% | 7mo | $7.38 |
| Valantis FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $100MCrypto | PF 15.2¢ | PM 81.0¢ | 2.69% | 14mo | $17.75 |
| NBA: 2027 Champion — Minnesota TimberwolvesNBA Finals | PM 4.6¢ | PF 94.5¢ | 0.80% | 8mo | $7.69 |
Spreads by venue pair
| Route | Spreads | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↔ Predict.fun | 307 | 45.3% |
| Kalshi ↔ Polymarket | 289 | 42.6% |
| Kalshi ↔ Predict.fun | 36 | 5.3% |
| Limitless ↔ Polymarket | 14 | 2.1% |
| Limitless ↔ Predict.fun | 13 | 1.9% |
| Kalshi ↔ Limitless | 11 | 1.6% |
| Opinion ↔ Polymarket | 5 | 0.7% |
| Opinion ↔ Predict.fun | 2 | 0.3% |
| Limitless ↔ Opinion | 1 | 0.1% |
Spreads by category
| Category | Spreads | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Soccer | 67 | 9.9% |
| NFL (All) | 60 | 8.8% |
| Sports | 59 | 8.7% |
| United States | 58 | 8.6% |
| President | 40 | 5.9% |
| FDV | 31 | 4.6% |
| Politics | 24 | 3.5% |
| NHL | 22 | 3.2% |
| NBA | 21 | 3.1% |
| Weather | 18 | 2.7% |
Resolving this week
Short-dated spreads free your capital sooner, so a smaller ROI can still mean a high APR.
How this page is built
Numbers come from the most recent scan. A spread counts here when YES on one venue plus NO on another costs less than $1 after taker fees and its ROI is at most 100%; bigger figures are almost always mismatches. The tables only list pairs with 90%+ match confidence and at least $10 of depth.
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