Guides & cases

Prediction market arbitrage guides and case studies

Playbooks on finding and executing spreads, plus real cases from traders: what they bought, what profit they targeted, and what went wrong.

GuideFeatured
41¢
the ask you actually pay

Polymarket’s order book, without the mystery

A Polymarket price is not one number. It is a bid, an ask and a pile of resting orders. Here is how to read the parts that matter before you trust a spread.

ArbSonar Research
Oct 25, 2026 · 3 min read
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Guide
1.75¢
the fee at 50¢, per contract

Kalshi fees: the number that quietly eats your spread

Kalshi’s taker fee is not a flat percentage. It changes with the price, and on a tight pair that small formula can decide whether the trade is worth doing.

ArbSonar Research
Oct 25, 2026 · 2 min read
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Guide
3 books
and one is much thinner

Limitless: quiet books, wide spreads, and a fee you have to estimate

Limitless is smaller than Polymarket and Kalshi, and that changes how you read a quote. Here is what to check before treating a Limitless price as real.

ArbSonar Research
Oct 25, 2026 · 2 min read
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Guide
8am
not the same as all day

The resolution rule that turns an arbitrage into a coin flip

Two markets can share a title and still pay out differently. Dates, time zones, sources and the difference between “above” and “at least” are where cross-venue trades break.

ArbSonar Research
Oct 25, 2026 · 2 min read
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Guide
10 min
from maybe to a decision

A 10-minute routine for checking a prediction market spread

A repeatable way to go from “this looks interesting” to “I understand the trade”, without pretending you can read two rulebooks in thirty seconds.

ArbSonar Research
Oct 25, 2026 · 2 min read
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In the works

  1. 01Reading resolution rules without getting burned
  2. 02Case: rotating $5k through weekly crypto markets
  3. 03Fees, gas and withdrawals: the real cost of a spread
  4. 04Election season: where spreads open up
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